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Cardinals go with winless starter Suppan in Chicago

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Suppan takes another crack at his first win of the season this afternoon when the St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Suppan has gone 0-3 with a 4.20 earned run average in six starts with the Cardinals following his release from the Milwaukee Brewers. He had been 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA in 15 appearances with the Brewers.

The 35-year-old righty last toed the rubber on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but did not get a decision, despite a solid performance that saw him surrender a run and five hits in six innings of his team's 5-4 win.

Suppan lost to the Cubs back on April 23 while with Milwaukee and is 6-10 lifetime against them with a 3.95 ERA in 25 starts.

St. Louis will need a big start from its veteran hurler tonight if it is going to get back in the win column following a 2-0 loss in 11 innings on Thursday to Philadelphia.

Adam Wainwright extended his scoreless innings streak to 25 after giving up six hits while fanning six in six frames for the Cardinals, who had an eight- game win streak stopped. St. Louis advanced just one runner past first base for the duration of the game and had just three baserunners overall.

"I don't worry about this loss," Wainwright said. "We won seven out of eight against two really good clubs. We should be excited about this homestand...It was just one game we lost in extra innings."

With Kyle McClellan (1-3) on to begin the 11th for St. Louis, Placido Polanco put the Phils ahead with a solo home run. They then tacked a run on later in the frame.

Chicago, meanwhile, also enters on a sour note after dropping two of three to the Houston Astros, including a 4-3, 12-inning setback in Wednesday's rubber match.

Bob Howry (1-3) took the loss after allowing two runs on a pair of hits while recording only one out for the Cubs, who have lost three of five.

Chicago, which is 11 games back of the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central, had a chance to win this one, but it stranded runners at second and third in the 11th after Derrek Lee flied out to end the frame.

"There's no secret we're in a bad spot," said Lee of the Cubs position in the standings. "We need to rack up as many wins as possible and the best way to go about that is winning series. Today we had a chance to win one and we let it slip away."

Heading to the hill for the Cubs this afternoon will be righty Randy Wells, who is 4-7 with a 4.33 ERA. Despite tossing seven scoreless innings on Saturday in Philadelphia, Wells did not get a decision in his team's 4-1 setback.

Wells, who is 0-2 in three appearances (two starts) against the Cards, has a 1.66 ERA over his past three starts, but has just one win in his last 14 outings.

St. Louis took two of three from the Cubs earlier in the season at Wrigley.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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