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Fantasy Baseball: Lessons learned from this year's fantasy draft

Baseball Betting Lines

08/31/2006 -

Losing fantasy owners: Aren't you glad you got A-Rod with the first or second overall pick?

It's not your fault. Every fantasy expert said you were a moron if you didn't draft Alex Rodriguez there.

He was part of the ``Big 2'' this past March. He and Albert Pujols were the consensus top picks, and it was solid intelligence leading us to that conclusion.

How's that going for you, A-Rod owners?

With most fantasy sports fans focused on football drafts, it's time to apply that hard-learned lesson.

Fantasy football drafters know well that there's a consensus ``Big 3'' (LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander) this year. Veer from one of those guys in your draft and you'll be called many names.

Don't be so sure you know what you think you know. That's why they play the games.

Draft with your gut and don't let anyone bully you.

Remember, the following questions may have made little sense in March. But now, they're all perfectly valid:

Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (.275-26-94)

ORGarrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies (.315-21-91)

Who would have thought this question would have any basis in reality at the start of September? But it's a perfectly reasonable one now, since Atkins hits line drive after line drive and has shown surprising power without the benefit of a typical Coors Field boost. Meanwhile A-Rod has drawn frequent jeers at Yankee Stadium. Last weekend in Anaheim, Rodriguez went 1-for-15 with an outlandish 10 strikeouts. Keep in mind that Ken Griffey Jr., six years older than A-Rod, started his fall from elite status about six years ago. It's sad to watch this future Hall of Famer's skills fade.Eric Chavez, 3B, Athletics (.240-16-57)

ORAdrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners (.265-16-60)

This question is no surprise, since fantasy owners have been debating it for many years. The surprise is the answer: Who cares? Two of the league's so-called elite hitters have fallen so far that now there are arguably 25 third basemen with more fantasy value than these two. Barring a September miracle, Chavez will fail to hit 30 homers for the fourth straight season and watch his average fall for the fourth consecutive year. Beltre's bat has woken up in the last month with seven home runs, but he certainly doesn't look anything like the MVP candidate from 2004 (.334-48-121). Next year, punt on both of these guys.Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians (.292-20-60, 18 SB)

OREric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks (.278-20-60, 18 SB)

This is no knock on Sizemore, who is an excellent young outfielder and may yet improve. It's more an acknowledgment of Byrnes, who has matured into an elite fantasy outfielder without anyone noticing. 20 HR-20 SB guys are exceedingly rare (only Alfonso Soriano and Johnny Damon are currently there, with Jimmy Rollins closing in) and tend to get drafted very early. Yet if you're in a mixed league, Byrnes may well be sitting on the waiver wire still. Will fantasy owners wise up and draft him high next year, or will he continue to get little respect?Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals (.322-39-109)

ORJustin Morneau, 1B, Twins (.317-32-110)

Granted, Morneau has 50 more at-bats than Pujols, but this just illustrates how good the Twins 1B has become. Keep in mind this may be Pujols' best season yet, and Morneau is right there with him. There is absolutely no reason not to draft Morneau next year in the top 10 overall, maybe the top five.Huston Street, Closer, Athletics (29-of-37 SV, 3.22 ERA)

ORJoe Borowski, Closer, Marlins (31-of-34 SV, 3.21 ERA)

Remember back in March, when Borowski was the only closer not drafted in your league because he had underwhelming stuff and played for a team that was going to win 50 games, maximum? Shows what we know. Borowski still doesn't have elite stuff, but he's been as steady a closer as there is in the majors this year, blowing fewer opportunities than Billy Wagner (five) or B.J. Ryan (four). Will he get respect as a closer in drafts next year? Probably not. He's just not a dominant pitcher.Roy Oswalt, RHP, Astros (10 W, 127 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)

ORC.C. Sabathia, LHP, Indians (10 W, 138 K, 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)

Oswalt was supposed to be one of fantasy baseball's three best pitchers. Sabathia was supposed to be overweight. Neither of these things have been major fantasy truths so far this year. Oswalt may have dominating stuff, but he's been inconsistent and most importantly his strikeout rate continues to fall. Sabathia has had a very good year, but the bottom line here is that if Oswalt no longer whiffs 200 batters in a season, he's a solid-but-unspectacular fantasy starter and that's it.Brett Myers, RHP, Phillies (10 W, 146 K, 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP)

ORScott Olsen, LHP, Marlins (11 W, 133 K, 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)

Olsen hasn't even been the best of the Marlins' rookie starters, but he's already attained the same fantasy status as Myers, who is certainly among the better National League starters. Myers, when on, is elite because he strikes out nearly nine batters a game. But he lacks the consistency to be a top-flight fantasy starter. The exact same things now can be said about Olsen.

Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

<< Ortiz released from hospital, Lester tested for enlarged lymph nodes
BOSTON (AP) -Red Sox slugger David Ortiz was released from the hospital Thursday while pitcher Jon Lester is being tested for enlarged lymph nodes - the latest setback for a team riddled with injuries.Ortiz was evaluated for heart palpitations at Ma

<< Prosser leads young Demon Deacons to Bahamas
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) -With 11 freshmen and sophomores, Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser will undoubtedly get frustrated at times this season.But putting the team through 10 practices in preparation for this weekend's exhibition games in the Bahama

<< Charges dropped against Benny the Bull
HELENA, Mont. (AP) -Charges against the Chicago Bulls' mascot for allegedly attacking an off-duty police officer during an outdoor festival in Chicago have been dropped.Bulls officials said charges of misdemeanor battery and driving within a parkway

<< Welcome back Nellie: Coach plans to make Warriors win again
OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) -Don Nelson relaxed in Maui, opened a bar in Dallas and just couldn't get comfortable in his cushy life after basketball.The NBA's second-winningest coach simply had to get on the sideline again - and the Golden State Warriors w

<< Girardi rejoins Marlins after missing game
ST. LOUIS (AP) -Florida Marlins manager Joe Girardi returned to the club Wednesday after missing Tuesday's game to be with his pregnant wife and wait out bad weather from Tropical Storm Ernesto.The Marlins, under bench coach Gary Tuck, scored a 9-1

Suns sign forward Jumaine Jones >>
PHOENIX (AP) -Jumaine Jones signed a one-year contract Thursday with the Phoenix Suns, who added an outside shooting threat to their roster.The 6-foot-8 forward, a seven-year veteran, will be going to his sixth NBA team. He averaged a career-best 10

Rivera's MRI exam shows mild muscle strain >>
NEW YORK (AP) -There was a huge sigh of relief among the New York Yankees on Thursday when results of an MRI exam on reliever Mariano Rivera's right arm showed only a mild muscle strain at the elbow but no structural damage.And then, as if to celebr

Cabrera out of lineup a day after being hit by pitch >>
ST. LOUIS (AP) -Miguel Cabrera was not in the Florida Marlins' lineup on Thursday night, a day after being hit by a pitch on his left triceps.``He's got a big bruise,'' manager Joe Girardi said. ``Obviously, he's not good enough to play, and we'll j

Walker's legacy remembered before opener >>
OXFORD, Ohio (AP) -While speakers on a makeshift stage behind the end zone told stories about Randy Walker's playing and coaching career, a kicker's warm-up try left the field and landed nearby, punctuating the speechmaking with a loud thump.The per

Boston gets pitcher from Arizona >>
BOSTON (AP) -The Boston Red Sox obtained right-hander Kevin Jarvis from Arizona for a player to be named or cash and assigned him to Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday night.The 37-year-old Jarvis was 0-1 with an 11.91 ERA in five games with the Diamond

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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

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